Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

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• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in South America
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Peru
  • Argentina
  • Brazil
  • Chile
  • Bolivia
  • Ecuador
  • Colombia
  • Paraguay
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)

Analysis of the most affected countries in South America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Peru⮸

Population $32,971,854$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $949,670$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,009,103.9}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 149.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,009,103.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35,595$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,488.8}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.6)}}\) (asimptote \(35,488.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34,636$ on 2020-11-23

Argentina⮸

Population $45,195,774$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,374,631$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,686,992.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 205.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,686,992.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $37,122$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,990.2}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 202.1)}}\) (asimptote \(45,990.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $133,709$ on 2020-11-23

Brazil⮸

Population $212,559,417$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,087,608$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,953,255.9}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 146.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,953,255.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $169,485$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{167,310.9}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 125.7)}}\) (asimptote \(167,310.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $436,939$ on 2020-11-23

Chile⮸

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $542,080$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{495,334.2}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 116.3)}}\) (asimptote \(495,334.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $15,106$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,889.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 114.8)}}\) (asimptote \(13,889.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,450$ on 2020-11-23

Bolivia⮸

Population $11,673,021$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $144,034$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{143,575.3}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.7)}}\) (asimptote \(143,575.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,916$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,248.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 143.5)}}\) (asimptote \(9,248.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15,570$ on 2020-11-23

Ecuador⮸

Population $17,643,054$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $185,944$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{214,623.4}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 165.6)}}\) (asimptote \(214,623.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13,225$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,383.7}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 167.6)}}\) (asimptote \(16,383.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,710$ on 2020-11-23

Colombia⮸

Population $50,882,891$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,254,979$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,269,584.8}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 175.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,269,584.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35,479$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,420.8}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 153.6)}}\) (asimptote \(34,420.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $60,603$ on 2020-11-23

Paraguay⮸

Population $7,132,538$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $77,072$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,301.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 199.6)}}\) (asimptote \(82,301.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,665$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,742.0}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 195.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,742.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,361$ on 2020-11-23

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Bolivia recovered 74%
Argentina recovered 23%